Monday, June 30, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jun 30 0550 UTC
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 June 2025

Solar activity was at low levels through the week. The largest flare was a C5.0 at 23/1223 UTC from Region 4115 (N21, L=019, class/area Dso/180 on 12 Jun). Regions 4117(S14, L=303, class/area Dai/210 on 19 Jun), 4118 (S12, L=293, class/area Dai/120 on 23 Jun), 4120 (N07, L=298, class/area Dai/090 on 26 Jun) and 4122 (N13, L=219, class/area Dai/140 on 28 Jun) were the largest regions on the disk this week, however only 4118 and 4120 had beta-gamma magnetic classifications briefly. Other activity included a C4.0/1f flare at 28/1954 UTC from Region 4126 (N07, L=261, class/area Cro/020 on 28 Jun). An associated, faint, partial-halo CME was observed at 28/2112 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Modelling of the event showed an arrival early on 02 Jul. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 23-25 Jun and again on 27-29 Jun with a peak flux of 6,350 pfu observed at 29/1600 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storming. Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced but waning under positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 400 km/s by early on 24 Jun. At 24/0930 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed as the solar wind transitioned into a negative sector. By early on 25 Jun, a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS was observed. Total field began to increase early on 25 Jul reaching a maximum of 16 nT at 25/2010 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed mostly in the 650-750 range, with multiple readings over 800 km/s. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased on 28-29 Jun and ended the period near 470 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 23-24 Jun, quiet to active levels on 25 Jun, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on 26-27 Jun, and back to quiet to unsettled levels on 28-29 Jun. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 June - 26 July 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 30 Jun - 04 Jul. Moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels are likely on 05 Jul - 26 Jul with the return of old Regions 4114 (N21, L=035) and 4117 on 05 Jul and 12 Jul, respectively. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Jun -01 Jul, 03 -08 Jul, and again on 20-26 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming likely on 02-03 Jul with the arrival of the 28 Jun CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 04-09, 11-19, 22-25 Jul with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 23-24 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 30 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-06-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jun 30     123           5          2
2025 Jul 01     120           5          2
2025 Jul 02     117          28          5
2025 Jul 03     115          20          5
2025 Jul 04     120          12          4
2025 Jul 05     120           8          3
2025 Jul 06     125           8          3
2025 Jul 07     125          10          3
2025 Jul 08     130          10          3
2025 Jul 09     135          10          3
2025 Jul 10     135           5          2
2025 Jul 11     140          15          4
2025 Jul 12     145          15          4
2025 Jul 13     145          10          3
2025 Jul 14     140          10          3
2025 Jul 15     135          12          4
2025 Jul 16     135          12          4
2025 Jul 17     130          10          3
2025 Jul 18     125          10          3
2025 Jul 19     125          10          3
2025 Jul 20     125           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     120          12          4
2025 Jul 23     120          20          5
2025 Jul 24     120          18          5
2025 Jul 25     120           8          3
2025 Jul 26     120           5          2
(NOAA)


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